THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA - 2010 UPDATE
By Jeff Head - Last Update: January 26, 2013

(Click on any image for a larger picture)

There have been numerous developments for the PLAN during 2009. One of the foremost was the very visible progress that is being made on the former Ukrainian aircraft carrier, Varyag, that the PLAN has been refurbishing since its arrival in Chinese waters in 2003. The vessel was moved from its long time mooring in Dalian to a new dry dock in early 2009. Soon thereafter, very visible work began on her, particularly centering on the island which has been rebuilt to allow for a new phased array radar fit and other sensors. In addition, a striking, full-sixed mockup of the entire deck and island has been built at the naval research facilities in Wuhan where obvious deck handling and logistics for deck and hanger deck operations are being developed and conducted.

On the mockup deck, two mockup aircraft have also been observed. One is a Z8 helicopter which may well represent an AEW variant of that platform. During the year, an actual AEW variant of the Z8 has been observed undergoing flight tests. The other aircraft appears to be a strike fighter built along the lines of the more advanced Chinese J11 license built variant of the Russian SU-27 which may represent either a carrier variant of that aircraft, or an altogether new aircraft that has been rumored, the J15.

These developments represent clear and major progress towards eventual launch of a PLAN aircraft carrier. We expect the Varyag to be launched in the 2011-2012 time frame, to be followed by one or two indegenous carriers built along the same lines in the 2015 to 2017 time frame.

During the 2009 calendar year, the PLAN has also continued to produce more of the new, modern Type 054A frigate design. It has also become clear that more Type 093 SSNs and Type 094 SSBNs are being launched. All of the new vessels are undergoing vigorous sea trials and testing, and then training as they are commissioned into the various PLAN fleets.

Of interest is also the numbers of PLAAF AEW, ELINT, refueling, and fighter/attack aircraft that are being built and put into service. To support their growing fleet, particularly out to the 2nd island chain and beyond, the PLAAF is significantly growing its numbers and capabiities of modern 4th generation aircraft.

Finally, the PLAN has conitnued its fleet operations along the Somalia coast and off the horn of Africa in anti-pirate operations with many other nations. By all accounts the PLAN vessels and crews are performing their mission very capably in this regard.

VARYAG MOVED TO NEW MOORING FOR DRY DOCK WORK & ISLAND RECONSTRUCTION

In early 2009 the aircraft carrier Varyag was moved to a new mooring and placed in dry-dock there.

While in dry dock, among other things, the Varyag's island was completely rebuilt to allow for PAR and other sensors.

NEW FULL-SIZED VARYAG DECK AND ISLAND MOCKUP BUILT AT WUHAN NAVAL RESEARCH FACILITY

A full-scale mockup of the Varyag deck and island being constructed at the Wuhan Naval Research Institute.

Full scale Varyag island mockup under construction at the Wuhan Naval Research Institute.

Full scale deck constructed at the Wuhan Naval Research Institute.

Full scale helicopter (Z8) and strike fighter (J11 or J15) on the Varyag mockup deck at the Wuhan Naval Research Institute.

NEW AEW HELICOPTER (Z8) FOR CARRIER OPERATIONS FLIGHT TESTED

MORE GUIDED-MISSILE FRIGATES, DIESEL/ELECTRIC SUBS, NUCLEAR ATTACK SUBS & NUCLEAR BALLISTIC MISSILE SUBS

The PLAN continues to produce more Type 054A Guided missiles frigates from its HP and HD facilities.

The PLAN continues to produce and train with its modern Air-Independent, Diesel Electric submarines.

More of the new, Type 093 nuclear attack submarines were observed in 2009.

More of the new, Type 094 nuclear ballistic missile submarines were are also observed.

OPERATIONS WITH THE NEW LPD CONTINUE & A NEW LHD DESIGN REVEALED

Training operations with the new amphibious assault, Type 071 LPD continued throughout 2009.

Plans for a larger, full-deck PLAN LPH were revealed in 2009.

PLAN BUILDING MORE AND DEPLOYING TYPE 022 FAST ATTACH MISSILE CRAFT.

In excess of 60 (maybe as many as 100) of these modern, guided-missile fast attack craft have been built and deployed.

PLAN BUILDING MORE NEW ALCM CARRYING BADGER AIRCRAFT

More long-range crusie carrying badger aircraft being introduced to the PLAN.

THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC CONTINUES TO GROW ITS OVERALL AWACS AND ELINT CAPABILITY

More full-sized, very capable PLAAF AWACS Aircraft airwings are being added.

AWACS and ELINT Aircraft appearing at more airbases throughout China.

THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC CONTINUES TO GROW ITS OVERALL 4TH GENERATION FIGHTER & ATTACK AIRCRAFT

More J10 Fighter/Bomber airwings oufitted and placed in service

More S-27, SU-30, and J11 Fighter/Bomber airwings oufitted and placed in service

The PLAAF continues to grow its JH-7, long-range attack aircraft capability.

Once again, by way of reference, it must be emphasized that measuring now over the least 12 years, in general numbers, over the last several years, the PLAN has accumulted a net gain of 97 new major surface combatants for its fleet. In that same period, the US Navy has seen a net loss of 46 major surface combatants, many of them with many years left in their srvice life. The US Navy continueed in 2009 to turn around its negative attrition rate, adding more ships in and overcoming its decommissioning rate. This trend is expected to continue and accellerate marginally over each of the next several years.

Clearly the overall trend shows that the PLAN is rapidly closing the gap between itself and the US Navy, and particualrly when focusing on the Western Pacific, which is where the PLAN is concentrated. This is a trend worthy of serious contemplation for future US Navy and other western nation's planning and acquisition schedules.

LINKS OF INTEREST

Note: Jeff Head has maintained the Rising Sea Dragon site for years at his cost. Now donations help offset hosting & bandwidth costs for continued operations.

Jeff Head is an engineering consultant with many years experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently works for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and is also the author of a self-published and best-selling series of military techno-thrillers called the Dragon's Fury that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events. You can learn more about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES

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