Marcia,

On this one I’m as perplexed as you!

It may be that the strategy in this recent incursion was in fact to force the Hezbollah to expend most of their rockets, with little real result. I suspect somewhere there, the conclusion was that Hezbollah would thus lose some face with its hidden backers.

On the other hand, the Israelis must know that the KGB is orchestrating both at the UN, in the MidEast countries, etc. to set up the scenario that the KGB desires: the giant eruption of the MidEast into a major war, Holy Jihad, etc. -- and thus the giant disruption of MidEast oil. Just how all this maneuvering is affecting that, is not obvious or at least not obvious openly.

Another important factor is one you touch on: The Israelis have parties and factions and disagreements also, within their own system. With Sharon desperately ill, the ship doesn’t have such a firm hand on its rudder at present. One faction would love to have Netanyahu back in there, other factions would like others, etc.

Israel obviously is also aware of the part that Iran is playing, and is planning on playing. Israel will have intelligence, e.g., on which of the MidEast powers (such as Syria and Iran) have nuclear weapons etc. clandestinely obtained. They will also have intelligence on the pathways for resupply of rockets to Hezbollah, etc. Our side doesn’t seem to have very much of anything in their intelligence along those lines.

So with the UN maneuvering, the left-leaning press’s maneuvering, etc., it’s a mess for an outsider to try to make sense of.

The other thing we have no intel on is what the status of the “behind the scenes” maneuvering with the superweapons, etc. are.  Or how the MidEast is connected to China, Turkey, and others.

Alas! I just don’t have the sources anymore to see behind all that maneuvering in public.

But if it holds true to MidEast form (whatever that is!), the bad guys are just going to get worse and keep blustering (and firing a few rockets etc.) while appearing to more or less go along with ceasefire so they have time to regroup and resupply. The good guys are going to keep changing in bewildering ways so that – e.g., the Hezbollah and others – it keeps the bad guys “off guard” as to what real Israeli strategy is. It’s sorta like shuffling the cups in a bewildering way, and then having to wonder which cup the pea is under. That kind of “obfuscation” is often an Israeli strategy.

Other considerations are that Israel is trying not to embarrass Tony Blair or George Bush too much with their British and American constituencies. One of the great disadvantages of a democracy is that the populace (or much of it) often thinks that the way one solves nasty old world problems when the going gets really sticky, is just to vote out the present administration and vote in a new one – most any kind of new one that makes all the right statements and assurances.

Unfortunately, our own populace still views war as it was done in the Middle Ages. The bad guys act up, and our knights then are supposed to ride out of the protected castle/fortress and go out there in the field and whomp the bad guys’ army. Then they turn right around and ride back into the protected fortress, and that’s that. I checked once to see when U.S. military institutes such as the War College and Command and General Staff College really got down to teaching something serious in asymmetric war, which is what we have today. Shockingly, until fairly recently they really did not cover the subject with any thoroughness and depth, but just a bit of lip service. Now they do cover it, but they still have not put the answers together – for one thing, they still don’t admit or teach the superweapons at all.

Ah well! This is the mishmash in which we find ourselves. These days, I’m so limited on real sources that I really can’t adequately assess the situation. As one gets older etc., things happen and one easily gets “parked”. I laugh at it, but I think I’ve just about been “parked” insofar as the military is concerned.

So one just does what one can. Fortunately we have a very strong and dedicated – and highly capable – little team, with the website also, and so we can continue to get out what information we can that could be useful. Particularly in the EFTV area. I was quite disappointed at my experience with the NSF; the Director himself is trying to shape NSF into an organization sponsoring and funding research at the cutting edge of science. But even though they turned me over to really decent folks, because of the subject – electrical power engineering – they turned me over to the top echelon of the electrical engineers! And of course that’s the end of it. As I say, they are good folks, but still hampered severely by the old doctrine so seriously flawed but accepted so universally and so broadly.

So the main effort for me is to continue doing all we can so our team can continue to get out much-needed information at least pointing the way in EFTV. Much of the MidEast power, and other asymmetric warfare power  to affect us or damage us, is due to our basically terrible vulnerability in energy – and our die-hard scientific determination to keep doing the same old things but just a bit better.

Anyway, hang in there! These are indeed troubled times internationally, and it’s not going to get any better. Our antagonists know that one of our great U.S. strategic vulnerabilities, in the area called “National Style”, is that Americans do not react to slowly increasing threats. They react to the rattler’s strike, but not to the slow squeezing of the boa constrictor.

So our antagonists’ main strategy is to keep us in the “boa constrictor” and steadily being increasingly squeezed situation – while preparing all the rattlers to strike.  Then, their strategy is to unleash a lightning series of rattler strikes, until we fold up in a daze as a helpless victim.

Sobering, but something along those lines is their strategy.

The Israelis are perfectly aware of all that, and also have a strategy that recognizes just where they have to “turn the tide” or divert the slow squeezing. Unfortunately, that strategy is one they never discuss or even admit. But it’s there, and at some point parts of it will just suddenly be released and become visible.

Best wishes and hang in there!

Tom