| Subject: FW: U.S. - Syria Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2001 22:24:54 -0500 Fellows, Looks as if the maneuverings for war preparation in the MidEast are beginning. It doesn't take a genius to see that war in the MidEast is now very highly probable, and that this is an optimum time for our adversaries because of the drawdown of U.S. forces below the level required to do this thing. We are as vulnerable right now as we are ever likely to be. Also, we are almost certainly going to be involved in it; there is simply no way out of it. In this brief article, you get a glimpse of the kind of options the administration must be worrying over at present. With another MidEast War, two things come prominently to mind: (1) the terrorist teams, anthrax, smallpox, and nuclear weapons already spirited into this country and waiting to be unleashed in our large cities, may well be unleashed to the tune of some millions of U.S. casualties and extraordinary damage, and (2) a new energy and oil crisis that will curl your hair will be come roaring down on us. We will likely not get out of this one unscathed, but probably will suffer terrible damage. Lunev is the highest ranking GRU defector we ever had. Read his book (cleared by the CIA), and he will explain to you how the Russians brought in large nuclear weapons to the U.S., with their Spetnatz teams already in place to set them off. These are not the little "suitcase" munitions, but weapons larger than those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in WW II. Several nations -- Iran, Iraq, etc. -- have also spirited in trainged, professional terrorist teams and weapons of mass destruction such as anthrax and smallpox. Read "Viewpoint", by former Senator Sam Nunn, in Aviation Week & Space Technology, Aug. 13, 2001, p. 74, or visit their website at www.AviationNow.com/awst. There you will get a glimpse of how totally unprepared we are, for what may be coming down upon our cities in the near future. Smallpox alone, if unleashed again, will kill nearly two billion people on earth, or about one-third of the Earth's population [Laurie Garrett, "The Nightmare of Bioterrorism," Foreign Affairs, 80(1), Jan./Feb. 2001, p. 76-89. Quoting p. 77: " Were a terrorist to disperse the smallpox virus, for example, populations that were once universally vaccinated would now be horribly vulnerable. Today the U.S. government stows only about 15.4 million doses of the smallpox vaccine-enough for less than seven percent of the American population. The World Health Organization (WHO) keeps another 500,000 doses in the Netherlands, and other national stockpiles total about 60 million more doses of varying quality and potency. If the smallpox virus were released today, the majority of the world's population would be defenseless, and given the virus' 30 percent kill rate, nearly two billion people would die." I can assure you that, if Saddam Hussein unleashes such a holocaust on American cities, the U.S. will strike Iraq with a full nuclear retaliation strike, and bury him. What happens then is anybody's guess. Here's another thing that our news did not even pick up on. Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, etc. are in fact being tested all the time against us, and could be unleashed wholesale at any time. This was verified by none other that then Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen, during a public Q&A session at an April 1997 counterterrorism conference sponsored by former Senator Sam Nunn, i.e., Conference on Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and U.S. Strategy, University of Georgia, Athens, Apr. 28, 1997. Quoting from the official DoD News Briefing: "Others [terrorists] are engaging even in an eco-type of terrorism whereby they can alter the climate, set off earthquakes, volcanoes remotely through the use of electromagnetic waves... So there are plenty of ingenious minds out there that are at work finding ways in which they can wreak terror upon other nations...It's real, and that's the reason why we have to intensify our [counterterrorism] efforts." Secretary of Defense William Cohen at an April 1997 counterterrorism conference sponsored by former Senator Sam Nunn. Quoted from DoD News Briefing, Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen, Q&A at the Conference on Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and U.S. Strategy, University of Georgia, Athens, Apr. 28, 1997. And just to keep it interesting, Castro for some decades has run guerrilla training camps in Southern Mexico, and infiltrated much of the output as trained saboteurs and guerrillas, across the Rio Grande, already here among our midst. Their job will be to take out key bridges, power stations and power lines, etc. -- destroying a great deal of the power grid. Estimates of the numbers vary, but it is safe to assume about 5,000 here. Many of the hostile Arab countries already have a substantial number of graduate students and students -- a percentage of which are terrorist agents -- here in the U.S. also, biding their time. And our State Department doesn't even know where they all are, or keep up with them. You see, modern strategic war has changed drastically. Now it will be fought right in the heart of our cities, against our civilian population, not just our soldiers on some distant battlefield. The public is ill-informed and totally unprepared. There are no shelters, much less ones with biological insulation against penetration of aerosols, etc. There are nowhere nearly enough medical installations or personnel. There is a laughable amount of old smallpox vaccine, much of which is no longer fit to be used on humans. The newer strain of smallpox made by the Russians and clandestinely sold to the terrorist groups is not affected by the vaccine anyway. The only way to decontaminate a large city struck by a professional release of anthrax (100 kilograms of anthrax spores sprayed out of a little piper cub type aircraft on a calm night) is by special very harsh sprays that have been developed in secret (they are not classified, but are clandestine -- that's what all the mysterious "spraying" around the nation for more than a year has been all about). The spray will kill the anthrax spores, including in your lungs if you breath it and the spores in. But it will also kill many people who have respiratory problems, are feeble and old, are little children, etc. The terrible thing about the "new war" is that now the military commanders have to make decisions with the lives of the civil populace that used to only be made for an army in the field. An army commander may have to send two divisions to their death (30,000 men) to stem an enemy advance and save the rest of his army. Now he may have to order a spraying that will kill 25,000 U.S. civilians, but may save 15 million. And once one shows symptoms of anthrax, there is really little that can be done about it. With the shortage of facilities, large numbers of casualties, shortage of antibiotics etc., triage will apply. Simply put, that means that anyone showing symptoms will probably just be laid aside to die. The treatment will of necessity be reserved for those for whom it may succeed. In short, the most likely to respond and survive are the ones who will be treated first, not those who are most desperately ill and most likely to die. As the Chinese say, we do live in "interesting" times. This is the real world we live in, not the one that one reads about in the daily news. Best wishes, Tom Friday, August 17, 2001 5:18 PM Subject: U.S. - Syria S T R A T F O R THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY 17 August 2001 THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT - FULL TEXT FOR MEMBERS ONLY -> ON OUR WEBSITE TODAY FOR MEMBERS ONLY: * Stray F-16 Likely on Mission http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/0108172200.htm * German Agreement Will Slow Poland's Growth http://www.stratfor.com/europe/commentary/0108171930.htm * Arafat Aims To Force New Negotiations http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/0108161510.htm Stray F-16 Likely on Mission Summary The U.S. Air Force reported Aug. 15 that an F-16 patrolling Iraq accidentally flew through Syrian airspace. The duration and depth of the flight suggests it was not a detour but a reconnaissance mission. Coming in the wake of reports of Iraqi incursions into Jordan, the incident indicates the Bush administration is closely considering the potential for Iraqi meddling in Israel's political crisis. Analysis A U.S. F-16 en route for patrol of the northern Iraqi no-fly zone accidentally flew over northern Syria without incident Aug. 15, according to Air Force spokesman Maj. Scott Vadnais. The lone fighter, which flew out of Turkey's Incirlik airbase, reportedly spent 23 minutes in Syrian airspace before entering Iraq five miles south of the 36th parallel. Considering the duration of the incursion and depth of the plane's path into Syria, it is unlikely the overflight was an accident. Rather, it may have been a reconnaissance mission seeking evidence of Iraqi military presence in Syria. U.S. officials have expressed concern over reports of Iraqi commandos in Jordan. Washington may soon be forced to attack Iraqi troops in order to maintain a firewall between the Israeli- Palestinian crisis and a belligerent Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Washington faces two major problems in the Middle East. It is trying to contain the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through negotiations, at the very least to prevent war between Israel and its neighbors. But at the same time the Bush administration is also working to contain Iraq. Washington has been cautious not to launch a substantial attack on Iraq for fear of the potential impact on the Israeli- Palestinian conflict. But Hussein now appears eager to link the conflicts, exploiting the Israeli crisis to escape Iraq's containment. The United States may have no choice but to strike first. The Pentagon's explanation of the F-16 incident over Syria is difficult to believe. Syrian airspace is politically sensitive, and the U.S. pilot logically would have the sense and navigational tools to avoid it. Moreover, considering the time the F-16 spent in Syrian airspace, it appears it crossed some 200 miles of Syrian territory. Assuming a straight flight to the point at which it entered Iraq, the F-16 would have entered Syria south of the Turkish city of Gaziantep. That path is almost a beeline from Incirlik. Also, the F-16 pilot was reportedly flying alone. It would seem unwise to send a single F-16 off to Iraq without support, given increased Iraqi air-defense efforts. Allied planes usually patrol the no-fly zones in groups of several dozen, and according to the Air Force, Iraq fired missiles at the patrol on Aug. 15. The more likely explanation is that the multi-role fighter was sent on a reconnaissance mission over Syria. The F-16 is not usually the first choice for reconnaissance; satellites and dedicated reconnaissance aircraft can carry out such missions from afar. But if Washington is seeking out camouflaged units, the F-16 could have acted as a decoy, attempting to goad camouflaged troops into revealing their presence and identities through electronic emissions such as air-defense radars and communications. Rear Adm. Craig R. Quigley, a Pentagon spokesman, acknowledged to reporters Aug. 16 that an AWACS aircraft was carefully monitoring the movement of the plane. ''We had an AWACS aircraft up and saw that he was steering wrong, that he was into Syrian airspace, and called him out, and he got out of Syrian airspace,'' Quigley said. But when asked why the crew of the AWACS did not alert the pilot quickly to get back on course, Quigley had little to say. ''I can't explain those tactical details to you. I'm sorry,'' he said. ''I don't know.'' By using the AWACS to identify the types of air defenses activated by the F-16 flight, the Pentagon could have determined what type and level of military units were moving through Northern Syria. Each type of Syrian and Iraqi unit -- whether it's of infantry, armor, or artillery -- has a distinct level of air-defense cover. By examining the level and intensity of air defenses watching the F-16, the Pentagon could have learned the level of operations going on from the reaction to the plane by air-defense systems on the ground. The F-16 passed over the intersection of Highway 715, one of four paved roads into Syria from Iraq, and Syrian Highway 7, which heads south toward Israel. Washington has reason to suspect Iraqi deployments in Syria. In early June, the London Sunday Telegraph cited U.K. Ministry of Defense sources as saying that Iraqi troops were massing between Arbil and Kirkuk in preparation for an attack on Kurdistan. The troops would have been in the vicinity of Highway 2, which runs east to Mosul and then intersects Highway 715 into Syria. Hussein's son and heir apparent, Qusay Hussein, was allegedly in charge of the operation. The attack on Kurdistan never happened, but events in Baghdad and Jordan raise the possibility that troops have been or are being diverted to assist Syria for a potential conflict with Israel. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa Miro arrived in Baghdad Aug. 11; he was the highest-ranking Syrian official to visit Iraq in two decades. Miro and Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassein Ramadan signed a series of cooperation agreements Aug. 13. Though the deals mostly involved trade, Ramadan stressed that Iraq is committed to assisting Syria "in all fields, including military." Iraq is reportedly deploying troops in Jordan as well. The London Sunday Telegraph article that projected an attack on Kurdistan also reported a smaller number of Iraqi troops and armored units had moved to Haditha on the Jordanian border, near Iraq's recently reopened Al Baghdadi air base. This ties in with more ominous reports of alleged Iraqi deployments into Jordan. UPI reported Aug. 13 that U.S. intelligence and administration sources expressed concern over increased Iraqi activity on the West Bank and Gaza Strip, as well as in Jordan. The officials said Iraq apparently is trying to smuggle arms and small commando units into the West Bank through Jordan. A joint Israeli- Jordanian operation reportedly foiled a recent Iraqi attempt to smuggle mortars and shells to Palestinian forces in the town of Kafr Saba. According to UPI, Iraq is pumping funds and agents into Palestinian territories under cover of relief operations. Meanwhile, Iraqi flags and images of Hussein are becoming more common at demonstrations in Bethlehem, Ramallah and Nablus. But that may be the tip of the iceberg. Jerusalem-based Israeli Web site DEBKA.com has published an unconfirmed report that 1,000 to 1,500 Iraqi forces have infiltrated Jordan since July 10. According to DEBKA's sources in Amman and Jerusalem, 10 times that number of Iraqi troops have massed across the border in western Iraq in preparation for another incursion. The Iraqi troops allegedly include the Republican Guard's Hammurabi Division and four mechanized infantry brigades. DEBKA cited military sources who said Qusay was in command of the Iraqi forces on the Jordanian border. If so, this suggests a further link between this operation and the June troop concentrations in northern Iraq. And according to Jordanian intelligence sources, large concentrations of Iraqi forces were located on the main road from Iraq to Damascus. Jordanian armed forces have reportedly been placed on a state of emergency, and Israeli troops have rushed to the Jordanian border to seal the West Bank from Iraqi incursions. Moreover, DEBKA reported that King Abdullah has called on Israel and the United States to help Jordanian forces rout the Iraqi commandos. Washington has clearly stepped up its efforts to monitor Iraqi activity in the south, and Iraq has responded aggressively. On July 19 Iraq reportedly attempted to shoot down a U.S. Navy E-2C over Kuwait. On July 24 Iraq tried to shoot down a U-2 reconnaissance aircraft over southern Iraq. And on July 30, Iraq fired a surface-to-air missile at an AWACS aircraft orbiting south of the Iraqi border over Saudi Arabia. Fearful that Iraq will widen the Israeli conflict, Washington is now apparently preparing to intervene. Gen. Tommy Franks, commander of the U.S. Central Command, met separately with Jordanian Prime Minister Ali Abu-Ragheb, who also holds the defense portfolio, and Gen. Mohammad Yousef Malkawi of the Jordanian armed forces on Aug. 16. Apart from saying the talks focused on defense cooperation, they released no details. The time may be short for a U.S. response. Hussein is at least rhetorically whipping up a crisis. Thousands of Iraqis, including members of the volunteer "Jerusalem Army," demonstrated in Baghdad Aug. 16, calling for the liberation of Palestine, a day after Hussein urged solidarity with the Palestinians. The United States has refrained from striking hard at Iraq for fear of inadvertently exacerbating the problem in Israel. But if, as reports suggest, Hussein is committed to involving Iraq in the crisis, the United States may soon be forced into a pre-emptive strike to prevent the eruption of a broad Arab-Israeli war. Reconnaissance flights and meetings with Jordanian officials will determine whether the strikes should target only western Iraq or Syria and northern Jordan as well. They may even lead to a U.S. deployment to Jordan.
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