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Date: Tue, 17 Jun 2003 21:52:27 -0500

Tony and Marcia,

Russia has announced it will not reprocess Iran's depleted nuclear fuel, as reported by the Stratfor folks.  That means that from that single Iranian reactor, once it is on line about a year from now, every year enough weapons grade plutonium to make 50 nuclear bombs will be available, and Iran will make 50 weapons. Separating the weapons grade plutonium is a piece of cake, almost high school chemistry these days. Iran has other nuclear reactors as well.  Several other nations not friendly to the U.S. are also maneuvering for such a program or considering it very seriously.  We could see a situation where 200 to 300 nuclear weapons emerge every year in the hands of nations noted for backing international terrorism.

Once about 250 to 300 such weapons are available, some 30 to 50 are likely to be quietly have been placed in the hands of the international terrorists such as Al Qaeda, who will also have inserted them into 30 or so U.S. cities. Al Qaeda may already have seven nuclear weapons in our cities already, now.

The additional nuclear weapons in our cities would complete the terrorist preparations for the absolute strategic destruction of the United States. Beginning about 3 years from now, we will enter the real danger period on that one, when the end of the insertion phase may be completed or near.  In my view, the next phase -- the operational phase --- will occur within no more than two years after that.  That means that we presently have no more than about five years to survive, unless this type thing is defeated.

Note that the administration very quietly has deployed nuclear detector systems widely in all our major cities, and is actively (but quietly) trying to intercept the insertion of nuclear materials, weapons, etc.  Also recall that the Russians long ago already inserted nuclear weapons in all our major cities, along with the Spetznaz teams to detonate them on order. The dominant faction of the old KGB (now with its new name) still is controlled by die-hard old communists, still seeking to destroy the U.S. and the West. That of course is not the younger faction, that Putin comes from.

To recognize the strategic significance, just imagine that substantial sized nukes (i.e., such as plutonium bombs) are detonated in some 30 major U.S. cities, very quickly. That will provide something like 100 to 150 million U.S. casualties, with nary a long range rocket fired or strategic bomber launched.  Note also that there is no definite location to "retaliate" and "destroy".  So this "works" for the terrorists, in complete nullification of the old MAD (mutual assured destruction) doctrine.

This is the real, cold-blooded strategic warfare that the terrorists and their backers are engaged in.  The twin towers, bombing bridges and buildings, etc. constitute tactical skirmishes and tactical warfare, not strategic.

Slowly we are seeing the ongoing preparations for the achievement of the intended knock-out capability against the United States.  This is the way asymmetric war is waged, and this is what we have to learn how to defeat. Or else it will most certainly destroy us, about three to five years from now.

Best wishes,

Tom