Subject: Incidents and coming
threats Date: Sat, 22 Feb 2003 11:20:56 -0600
Tony and Marcia,
Well, the explosion and fire in New York are certainly suspicious, but
as usual it will probably be some time, if ever, before we have any
positive indications. But the close synchronicity itself, plus the
critical nature of the facilities involved, is suspicious to say the
least.
The bad news is that the militant Arab nations have found a neat little
way to develop nuclear weapons very quickly, after some preparation
time, in compliance with all international agreements, etc. Iran is
well-embarked on that pursuit right now.
Simply put, they opt for a light water nuclear reactor-driven electrical
power plant, which is permitted. But such a plant also produces weapons
grade plutonium as part of its spent fuel. One year or so after
operation, one of those major plants will have produced enough plutonium
to make (within weeks) 50 nuclear bombs. The French and the Russians
particularly will sell the technology and install the plant. All the
nation does then is drag their feet and not agree to return the spent
fuel (which is exactly what Iran has done). The plant being installed
by the Russians in Iran should be on line in a year to a year and a
half, and a year later Iran can then suddenly become a nuclear power
within weeks.
Syria seems to be headed down the same path, and I've not yet seen
what's happening in Egypt and Libya, etc. [In the Iraqi facilities
originally knocked out by Israeli bombing some years ago, enough weapons
grade material for a few nuclear bombs had already been produced.]
But it appears now that within the next three years or so, several of
the Arab nations specifically carried on the official U.S. list of
client nations for terrorists, will gain nuclear weapons in some
appreciable quantity. 50 more plutonium bombs worth of material every
year the plant is in operation, is the problem and the "great
breakthrough" planned by those nations.
So this mess has just started. A video can actually be seen of an AEI
panel presentation, where Henry Sokolski beautifully summarizes the Iran
nuclear situation, from the CNN web address given in the following
communications:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dear
Mr. Bearden:
We are
currently in the midst of transcribing yesterday's panel discussion,
"Russia and the Axis of Evil." In the meantime, however, you can watch
video of the entire panel discussion online, courtesy of C-SPAN, at:
http://video.c-span.org:8080/ramgen/ndrive/iraq022003_russia.rm
All the
best,
Vance
Serchuk
Research Associate
Russian
Studies Program
American Enterprise Institute
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Anyway, it appears that much of the Arab world has now found the path to
rather easy attainment of very important and powerful nuclear
capability. I haven't had time to enlarge the search and see just how
many others are diddling with it, but I hope to receive a draft
transcript of the AEI panel discussion in the future.
By the way, quoting one nuclear warhead design scientist: "Once
terrorists have the nuclear fuel, building a bomb is child's play. …The
chemistry required to extract the plutonium is less sophisticated than
that required for the illegal manufacture of designer drugs." In other
words, any nation can easily do it, and those who wish to, will.
Cheers,
Tom |