You are correct about the concentration of naval forces being a vulnerability, of course.  E.g., do a Google search on the Internet and you will find that the Russians long ago developed extraordinarily fast torpedoes that travel some 200 mph or faster.  If hostile nations in the MidEast have clandestinely purchased some of these weapons, then small attack ships, torpedo boats, and a few diesel subs could do unacceptable damage to our naval ships.  What is the probability of that?  No one knows. So our concentration of forces is a vulnerability, in that the potential threat --- at least as far as is in public knowledge --- is unknown.

We are also entering a year of severe U.S. politicking, which sets government groups and folks against each other as they posture and struggle and fight each other for advantage and election.  That internal disarray and diversion of national effort and attention is a serious disadvantage when the nation is preparing to go to war very quickly now.

Korea seems to be heating up, and, if the situation intensifies, it will also require additional concentrations and troops in that region, further splitting our forces.  North Korean missiles can indeed reach into South Korea, where we have quite a few U.S. forces already stationed.  Even a small-to-medium attack on South Korea could require very quick U.S. troop deployment to the area.  That potential spreading of our forces is a vulnerability.

The Chinese have just called for the U.S. to cease all further military activities with Taiwan.  China does intend to take Taiwan by force one of these fine days; that is a certainty.  China is one of the nations that possesses the two classes of most powerful weapons on earth, more powerful than nuclear weapons.  Those are (1) the quantum potential weapons, and (2) negative energy EMP weapons.  In the unlikely event that military actions between China and the U.S. occurred or were initiated, these new weapons pose an unacceptable threat to our naval forces.  China also has long range nuclear-tipped missiles that can reach the United States and its cities. China also controls the Panama Canal, and has some 200,000 Chinese already in Panama.  Not troops, of course, but Chinese.  China has the use of two ports in the U.S. (acquired under the Clinton administration), and strong access to several other ports in the Western Hemisphere.  So China is in position to maneuver either way; helpfully or adding to the problem. That uncertainty and its range of Chinese options is a vulnerability.

The U.S. is not mobilized, which is a serious vulnerability the moment we go to war.  As of the time that the U.S./Iraq war begins, we will have to go with what we have then.  There will be no time to build up and train new forces, produce more new weapons, etc.

The first phase of World War III --- surreptitious insertion of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) into the targeted nation, with the WMD placed in the distant targeted cities and installations --- has already been completed. In my view, we entered the Second Phase (when operations get under way) of World War III on Sept. 11, 2001.   Sometime between the latter part of this month and mid next month, the decision point on Iraq will be reached and U.S. attack on Iraq is almost certain, which will fully initiate Phase II. Depending on how successful full bore hostile Phase II operations and WMD are when unleashed within the continental U.S., the degree of vulnerability to the implanted weapons of mass destruction can vary from significant to very great to overwhelming.  E.g., successful attacks cutting our oil lines, power grids, some dams, etc. could prove disastrous, causing great economic difficulties in the U.S.  If clandestine nukes are in here and are set off, obviously we are speaking of great destruction.  The successful completion of Phase I and the entry into Phase II with imminent full-bore Phase II could result in significant hostile operations and substantial damage occurring inside the U.S., suddenly demanding substantial U.S. forces in place in the U.S. for homeland security.  With our combat forces largely deployed overseas, and without being mobilized, it requires time to get a draft or great call-up, get the new recruits in and trained, and then deploy them.  All that is a significant vulnerability.

The fact that nuclear weapons have indeed been slipped into the U.S. and placed in many of our cities is known.  E.g., read Lunev's book (Stanislav Lunev, with Ira Winkler, Through the Eyes of the Enemy, Regnery, Washington, 1998.  Lunev is the highest ranking GRU defector.  He is a former Colonel in the GRU, the military counterpart of the KGB.  In p. 22-33, he summarizes the Spetznaz capabilities.  On p. 22-27, he summarizes Spetznaz use of nuclear weapons already on American soil.  On p. 26, he gives some of the ways in which the Soviets easily brought nuclear weapons into the U.S.  On p. 30 he confirms Russian seismic weapons. Use of EMP weapons is on p. 30-31.  Use of very, very low frequency weapons to destroy the human brain, put people into a zombie-like state, and aid in brainwashing is confirmed on p. 31.)      The Soviets introduced nuclear weapons into our major cities before the collapse of the old Soviet empire, along with the necessary Spetznaz teams to detonate them on command.  The weapons are still here, as are the Spetznaz teams.  In our view, China, e.g., may also have spirited in nuclear weapons via the shipping container route (should she have wished to), and so could any other hostile or potentially hostile nation having nuclear weapons capabilities.  When the Soviet economy collapsed, the Soviet generals and troops could not be paid. To prevent starvation, they simply began selling off their war goods, in order to survive.  If one had money and guts, one could then go into the elements of the old Soviet Empire and buy almost whatever one wished, including chemical and biological warfare agents and weapons, nuclear weapons, and nuclear materials.  Anyone wanting to hire nuclear scientists experienced in atomic bomb design and manufacture did so. Anyone wishing to hire biological warfare experts did so.  E.g., Al Qaeda recently gave an interview stating it has inserted a few nuclear weapons into U.S. cities.  Purportedly some were 100 KT and some were 10 KT, being purchased weapons bought on the black market.  It is a fact that one ship container was found loaded with lead plates for shielding of just such inserted weapons, just as the interview stated.  One does not know what rating to give the interview information:  In short, what is the most reasonable assessment of whether or not the purported Al Qaeda weapons are really in here?  The certainty of Russian nukes in here, and the possibility of Al Qaeda and other hostile nukes in here as well, is a serious vulnerability.

The weak economic situation in the U.S. and the continuing lack of jobs places the U.S. in a precarious position if severe economic upset occurs from a very disruptive war.  If significant and effective Phase II WMD operations inside the U.S. do occur and create havoc, that will strain the U.S. economy toward the breaking point.  Depending on the hostile success in Phase II in the U.S., our economy could be significantly reduced or even collapsed.  It is significant that the recent Al Qaeda release aimed at destroying the U.S. economy.  The potential damage to, or collapse of, our economy is a significant vulnerability.

Our allies in the Middle East are still waffling quite a bit on our permission to use bases in their countries.  When attacked, if Saddam Hussein can successfully fire Scud missiles into Israel, with smallpox and other BW agents, that will instantly inject Israel into the war, converting the U.S./Iraq war into a potential Great Jihad between the Moslem world and the Great Satan --- Israel and the U.S.  That brings our bases on foreign soil there in the MidEast into jeopardy.  Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, etc. would also likely have sudden violent insurrections, spearheaded by the fanatical fundamentalists.  We could well find OPEC simply cutting off our oil supply, e.g., The potential threat to our bases and their insecurity --- and to the U.S. economy --- is another vulnerability.

We also have a problem with Allies.  The British and the Canadians will be with us.  Germany will not, and France probably will not.  Pakistan and Turkey can remain our allies so long as the U.S./Iraq war does not get converted to a Great Jihad between the Moslem world and the Great Satan.  If conversion occurs, our dependence on allies who are suddenly not allies or not dependable allies, is a substantial vulnerability.

Afghanistan will continue to require troops and combat action.  In all likelihood, the moment the U.S./Iraq war erupts, Afghanistan will also again erupt, with renewed Taliban attacks, warlord disaffectation, and an increase in internal conflicts between the warlords themselves.  That is a vulnerability, because it nails down considerable U.S. forces and efforts.

We only just recently passed the Homeland Security bill.  Homeland Security is not yet organized and functioning, but only in desultory fashion. Neither the border with  Canada nor the border with Mexico are sealed.  Only 2% or less of the shipboard containers entering this country from all over the world are ever inspected anywhere, and that has been the case now for years.  Since most anything desired could have been (or could now be being) shipped into this country, with the U.S. trucking industry and railroad industry ready to load up the containers and deliver them on site to waiting hostile groups, that is a serious vulnerability.

If we have significant BW releases in our cities, our populace is ill-prepared to say the least.  So are our medical support forces.  A hospital, e.g., might be able to muster treatment and support for, say, 50 cases of anthrax.  Imagine what happens to it when hit by 10,000 or even 100,000.  Consider the problem of decontaminating a city hit by successful anthrax spray attack; it's terrible.  There are indeed some harsh sprays that will kill the anthrax spores etc., but it is harsh.  One might have to spray such a contaminate city --- and its populace --- several times.  That will inevitably result in the deaths of some of our own cities -- and it would be the weakest and most helpless citizens who are killed, the very ones we would wish to most urgently defend with all our hearts and all our might.  The lack of strong preparations and capabilities already in place nationwide is a significant --- even serious --- vulnerability.

We are especially vulnerable now to smallpox, as is most of the world (particularly the younger generations).  Much of the world is deadly vulnerable to it.  Further, much of the smallpox in the hands of terrorists is one or more of the modified, more infectious, and more lethal strains generated by Russian BW labs, who led the world.  If smallpox is unleashed in a single major city on Earth, it will eventually result in nearly 2 billion deaths worldwide -- or almost a third of the Earth's population. E.g., see Laurie Garrett, "The Nightmare of Bioterrorism," Foreign Affairs, 80(1), Jan./Feb. 2001, p. 76-89.  Quoting: "Were a terrorist to disperse the smallpox virus, for example, populations that were once universally vaccinated would now be horribly vulnerable.  Today the U.S. government stows only about 15.4 million doses of the smallpox vaccine-enough for less than seven percent of the American population.  The World Health Organization (WHO) keeps another 500,000 doses in the Netherlands, and other national stockpiles total about 60 million more doses of varying quality and potency.  If the smallpox virus were released today, the majority of the world's population would be defenseless, and given the virus' 30 percent kill rate, nearly two billion people would die."  This is a very serious vulnerability, both of the U.S. and other nations as well.

There are quite a few other vulnerabilities also, but the above should show enough "multiple intersecting vulnerabilities at one time" to be quite serious.  This is why we so desperately urged the U.S. government in 1998 to launch a new Manhattan Project to develop small, portable, effective EM treatment devices suitable for very rapid and mass treatment of mass casualties in our cities.  Sadly, they did not even realize what we were talking about; no one believed that 9/11 would happen on their watch, or that we would really face any serious strategic WMD threats.  If you wish to see what we proposed, see our Porthole Briefing on our website, www.cheniere.org .

Anyway, let us hope that the Al Qaeda does not have nukes in the U.S., that the anthrax threat has been very much overrated, etc.  Remember, the anthrax used in the mailings was very elegantly prepared anthrax, and state of the art.  Those mailings were not a major effort at all, but were just a little test to see how much disruption letters through the mail into our major cities could cost.  The answer is, they can enormously disrupt things if a real "anthrax through the mail" campaign were launched by a few terrorists. We have here a signature of one WMD attack, that is almost certain to occur, with substantial disruption.

As is well-known, a threat analyst first must analyze hostile capabilities and friendly vulnerabilities.

When we take the analyst approach, we find a very uncomfortable number of converging multiple friendly vulnerabilities from significant to very serious, and also a very uncomfortable number of hostile capabilities to take great advantage of those vulnerabilities.

At any rate, the critical attack decision period --- now appearing to be from about 20 Jan to mid-Feb 2003 --- is hurtling at us now like a freight train.  In my opinion, the decision has already been irrevocably made.  We are likely to soon find out to what degree these friendly vulnerabilities and hostile capabilities really exist, and how they will interact once the war begins.

It is also my opinion that, if we had access to the deeper and more accurate briefings our intelligence community gives the Commander in Chief, we would understand that President Bush has very little choice.  He is almost certainly facing a situation where, if he moves very shortly, we will pay a bitter price but we will get the job done.  If he waits, say, two years, we will pay at least 10 to 20 times the price and we will probably not get the job done.

Let us pray that these coming events work out in such a manner that our nation survives without too great damage and loss of lives, that Saddam Hussein is overthrown without too great a loss in Iraqi lives, and that the victory comes very quickly.  Nonetheless, we may well be in for a very bad show, here in our cities and in our homeland itself.  We could conceivably lose as many casualties as we have previously lost in all our wars in all our history.

Best wishes,

Tom Bearden